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Al Qadsia vs Al Nasar — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Al Qadsia
Al Qadsia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Nasar
Al Nasar
3/31/2025Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Preliminary RoundAl-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Qadsia56%
×Draw23%
Al Nasar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadsia
1.83
Al Nasar
1.04

Al Qadsia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Qadsia
2.17
Al Nasar
1.75

allows per match

Al Qadsia
0.33
Al Nasar
1.50

finishing

Al Qadsia+0.00on par
Al Nasar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadsia ↓

Al Nasar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Qadsia or draw
79%
Al Qadsia or Al Nasar
77%
Draw or Al Nasar
44%

Winning margin

Al Qadsia wins by 2+
32%
Al Nasar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Qadsia 1+ goals
84%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
54%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
28%
Al Nasar 1+ goals
65%
Al Nasar 2+ goals
28%
Al Nasar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
72%
Al Nasar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadsia at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Al Nasar away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadsia attack 2.17 + Al Nasar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Nasar attack 1.75 + Al Qadsia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Qadsia scores more
56%
level
23%
Al Nasar scores more
21%

Al Qadsia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Qadsia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crown Prince Cup: Al Qadsia 1–0 Al Nasar

Al Qadsia beat Al Nasar 1-0 in Crown Prince Cup on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium in Kuwait City.