Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Qadsia vs Al Kuwait — Premier League 2019

Al Qadsia
Al Qadsia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Kuwait
Al Kuwait
I. Khafi 80'
M. Soulah 25'
Y. Naser 61'
1/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Mohammed Al-Hammad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Al Qadsia32%
×Draw24%
Al Kuwait44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadsia
1.39
Al Kuwait
1.66

Al Kuwait creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al Qadsia
1.82
Al Kuwait
2.16

allows per match

Al Qadsia
1.16
Al Kuwait
0.95

finishing

Al Qadsia+0.00on par
Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadsia ↓

Al Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Qadsia or draw
56%
Al Qadsia or Al Kuwait
76%
Draw or Al Kuwait
68%

Winning margin

Al Qadsia wins by 2+
14%
Al Kuwait wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Qadsia 1+ goals
75%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
40%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
16%
Al Kuwait 1+ goals
81%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
49%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
42%
Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadsia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadsia attack 1.82 + Al Kuwait defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Kuwait attack 2.16 + Al Qadsia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Qadsia scores more
32%
level
24%
Al Kuwait scores more
44%

Al Kuwait at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Soulah
61'
Y. Naser
66'
A. A. Abdelfattah
80'
I. Khafi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qadsia vs Al Kuwait

Al Qadsia beat Al Kuwait 2-1 in Premier League on January 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Soulah (25'), Y. Naser (61'), I. Khafi (80').

The match was played at Mohammed Al-Hammad Stadium in Kuwait City.