Al Qadsia 1–1 Al Jahra: Result & Stats

Al Qadsia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Jahra

2/9/2023

Premier League · Round 13Mohammed Al-Hammad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Qadsia58%

×Draw22%

Al Jahra20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al QadsiaExpected goals in this matchAl Jahra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.04

Al Qadsia

1.91

Al Jahra

1.04

Al Qadsia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

1.82

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al Qadsia

1.82

Al Jahra

0.93

allows per match

Al Qadsia

1.16

Al Jahra

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Qadsia+0.00on par

Al Jahra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadsia ↓

Al Jahra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Qadsia or draw

80%

Al Qadsia or Al Jahra

78%

Draw or Al Jahra

42%

Winning margin

Al Qadsia wins by 2+

34%

Al Jahra wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Qadsia 1+ goals

85%

Al Qadsia 2+ goals

57%

Al Qadsia 3+ goals

30%

Al Jahra 1+ goals

65%

Al Jahra 2+ goals

28%

Al Jahra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Qadsia (draw refunded)

74%

Al Jahra (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadsia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Al Jahra away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadsia attack 1.82 + Al Jahra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Al Jahra attack 0.93 + Al Qadsia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Qadsia scores more

58%

level

22%

Al Jahra scores more

20%

Al Qadsia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Qadsia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff