Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
Al-Qadisiyah FC47%
Jeddah Club27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 41% more chances
Season form · 72 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches
Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.60 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49
Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Abha
Al Diriyah
Al Ula
Al-Faisaly FC
Al Orubah
Al Jabalain
Al-Raed
Al Zulfi
Al Taee
Al Bukayriyah
Al Anwar
Al Wehda ClubJeddah Club
Al-Adalah
Al Jandal
Al Baten
Al Arabi SC
Al JubailIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Jeddah Club on Wednesday, 15 February 2023 at 12:30. The match is part of the Division 1 2018/2019 season.
Division 1: Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–0 Jeddah Club
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Jeddah Club drew 0-0 in Division 1 on February 15, 2023.
The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.