Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Bisha: Result & Stats

Al-Qadisiyah FC

FT

2 – 1

Bisha

11/2/2021

Division 1 · Round 9Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC57%

×Draw25%

Bisha18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Qadisiyah FCExpected goals in this matchBisha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.61

Bisha

0.78

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.60

creates per match

0.63

0.93

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.60

Bisha

0.63

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.93

Bisha

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Bisha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Bisha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw

82%

Al-Qadisiyah FC or Bisha

75%

Draw or Bisha

43%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

31%

Bisha wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

80%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

48%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

22%

Bisha 1+ goals

54%

Bisha 2+ goals

18%

Bisha 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

76%

Bisha (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Bisha away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.60 + Bisha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bisha attack 0.63 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

57%

level

25%

Bisha scores more

18%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff