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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
5/29/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC50%
×Draw25%
Al Arabi SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.60
Al Arabi SC
1.05

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.60
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.93
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
75%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Arabi SC
75%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
50%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
26%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
80%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
47%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
22%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
65%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
28%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
67%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.60 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Al Arabi SC scores more
25%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–2 Al Arabi SC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Arabi SC 3-2 in Division 1 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.