Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1–0 Assabah SC

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Assabah SC

4/18/2026

Premier League · Group A - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid28%

×Draw39%

Assabah SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Qadisiyah Bani WalidExpected goals in this matchAssabah SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

0.74

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

0.64

Assabah SC

0.74

Assabah SC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

0.50

creates per match

0.78

0.70

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

0.50

Assabah SC

0.78

allows per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

0.70

Assabah SC

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par

Assabah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under84
Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid ↓

Assabah SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–119%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

40%60%2.5

16%84%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or draw

66%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or Assabah SC

61%

Draw or Assabah SC

72%

Winning margin

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+

7%

Assabah SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals

47%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals

14%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals

3%

Assabah SC 1+ goals

52%

Assabah SC 2+ goals

17%

Assabah SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)

45%

Assabah SC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Assabah SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.50 + Assabah SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Assabah SC attack 0.78 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more

28%

level

39%

Assabah SC scores more

34%

Assabah SC at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Assabah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff