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Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al Malaab El Libby — Premier League 2019

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
1/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid33%
×Draw36%
Al Malaab El Libby31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.81
Al Malaab El Libby
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.50
Al Malaab El Libby
0.85

allows per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.70
Al Malaab El Libby
1.11

finishing

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par
Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid ↓

Al Malaab El Libby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or draw
69%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or Al Malaab El Libby
64%
Draw or Al Malaab El Libby
67%

Winning margin

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+
11%
Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals
56%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals
19%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals
5%
Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
54%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
18%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)
52%
Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Al Malaab El Libby away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.50 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.85 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more
33%
level
36%
Al Malaab El Libby scores more
31%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al Malaab El Libby

Al Malaab El Libby beat Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2-0 in Premier League on January 26, 2026.