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Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al-Madina — Premier League 2019

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Madina
Al-Madina
4/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid37%
×Draw34%
Al-Madina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.93
Al-Madina
0.78

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.50
Al-Madina
0.86

allows per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.70
Al-Madina
1.36

finishing

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par
Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid ↓

Al-Madina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or draw
71%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or Al-Madina
66%
Draw or Al-Madina
63%

Winning margin

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+
14%
Al-Madina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals
61%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals
24%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals
7%
Al-Madina 1+ goals
54%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
18%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Madina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.50 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more
37%
level
34%
Al-Madina scores more
29%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al-Madina

Al-Madina beat Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2-0 in Premier League on April 9, 2026.