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Al Orubah vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018

Al Orubah
Al Orubah
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
3/28/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 27Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Orubah41%
×Draw28%
Jeddah Club31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Orubah
1.27
Jeddah Club
1.06

Al Orubah creates 20% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 127 away

creates per match

Al Orubah
1.16
Jeddah Club
1.19

allows per match

Al Orubah
0.93
Jeddah Club
1.37

finishing

Al Orubah+0.00on par
Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Orubah ↓

Jeddah Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Orubah or draw
69%
Al Orubah or Jeddah Club
72%
Draw or Jeddah Club
59%

Winning margin

Al Orubah wins by 2+
18%
Jeddah Club wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Orubah 1+ goals
72%
Al Orubah 2+ goals
36%
Al Orubah 3+ goals
14%
Jeddah Club 1+ goals
65%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
29%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Orubah (draw refunded)
57%
Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Orubah at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Orubah attack 1.16 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al Orubah defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Orubah scores more
41%
level
28%
Jeddah Club scores more
31%

Al Orubah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Orubah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Orubah vs Jeddah Club

Jeddah Club beat Al Orubah 2-1 in Division 1 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Oruba Club Stadium in Al Jawf.