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Al Orubah vs Al Jubail — Division 1 2018

Al Orubah
Al Orubah
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
F. Rabie 64'
Simy 54'
E. Al Thakrallah 83' (pen)
10/5/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Al-Jouf University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Orubah53%
×Draw26%
Al Jubail21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Orubah
1.52
Al Jubail
0.84

Al Orubah creates 81% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Orubah
1.16
Al Jubail
0.76

allows per match

Al Orubah
0.93
Al Jubail
1.88

finishing

Al Orubah+0.00on par
Al Jubail+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Orubah ↓

Al Jubail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Orubah or draw
79%
Al Orubah or Al Jubail
74%
Draw or Al Jubail
47%

Winning margin

Al Orubah wins by 2+
28%
Al Jubail wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Orubah 1+ goals
78%
Al Orubah 2+ goals
45%
Al Orubah 3+ goals
20%
Al Jubail 1+ goals
57%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
21%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Orubah (draw refunded)
72%
Al Jubail (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Orubah at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Al Jubail away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Orubah attack 1.16 + Al Jubail defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Jubail attack 0.76 + Al Orubah defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Orubah scores more
53%
level
26%
Al Jubail scores more
21%

Al Orubah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Orubah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
Simy↳ D. Gonzalez
64'
F. Rabie↳ A. Al Juwaid
83'
E. Al ThakrallahPenalty
Al
Al
Slavche Vojneski
Manager: Slavche Vojneski
Pedro António da Silva Rodrigues
Manager: Pedro António da Silva Rodrigues

Match Recap: Al Orubah vs Al Jubail

Al Orubah beat Al Jubail 2-1 in Division 1 on October 5, 2025.

Goals: Simy (54'), F. Rabie (64'), E. Al Thakrallah (83' pen).

The match was played at Al-Jouf University Stadium in Sakakah.