Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Orubah vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Orubah
Al Orubah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
12/27/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Orubah41%
×Draw29%
Al Bukayriyah30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Orubah
1.21
Al Bukayriyah
0.98

Al Orubah creates 23% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Orubah
1.16
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Orubah
0.93
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Orubah+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Orubah ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Orubah or draw
70%
Al Orubah or Al Bukayriyah
71%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
59%

Winning margin

Al Orubah wins by 2+
18%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Orubah 1+ goals
70%
Al Orubah 2+ goals
34%
Al Orubah 3+ goals
12%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
62%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
26%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Orubah (draw refunded)
58%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Orubah at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Orubah attack 1.16 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Orubah defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Orubah scores more
41%
level
29%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
30%

Al Orubah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Orubah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Orubah vs Al Bukayriyah

Al Orubah beat Al Bukayriyah 1-0 in Division 1 on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Oruba Club Stadium in Al Jawf.