Al Orubah 4–1 Al-Ain: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Orubah

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Al-Ain

8/28/2023

Division 1 · Round 3Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Orubah43%

×Draw29%

Al-Ain28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al OrubahExpected goals in this matchAl-Ain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Al Orubah

1.23

Al-Ain

0.93

Al Orubah creates 32% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Al Orubah

1.16

Al-Ain

0.92

allows per match

Al Orubah

0.93

Al-Ain

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Orubah+0.00on par

Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Orubah ↓

Al-Ain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Orubah or draw

72%

Al Orubah or Al-Ain

71%

Draw or Al-Ain

57%

Winning margin

Al Orubah wins by 2+

19%

Al-Ain wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Orubah 1+ goals

71%

Al Orubah 2+ goals

35%

Al Orubah 3+ goals

13%

Al-Ain 1+ goals

61%

Al-Ain 2+ goals

24%

Al-Ain 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Orubah (draw refunded)

61%

Al-Ain (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Orubah at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Orubah attack 1.16 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Al Orubah defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Orubah scores more

43%

level

29%

Al-Ain scores more

28%

Al Orubah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Orubah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff