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Al Oruba vs Sur — Professional League 2019

Al Oruba
Al Oruba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sur
Sur
11/3/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 8Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Oruba37%
×Draw30%
Sur33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Oruba
1.06
Sur
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 48 away

creates per match

Al Oruba
0.77
Sur
0.83

allows per match

Al Oruba
1.15
Sur
1.35

finishing

Al Oruba+0.00on par
Sur+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Oruba ↓

Sur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Oruba or draw
67%
Al Oruba or Sur
70%
Draw or Sur
63%

Winning margin

Al Oruba wins by 2+
14%
Sur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Oruba 1+ goals
65%
Al Oruba 2+ goals
29%
Al Oruba 3+ goals
9%
Sur 1+ goals
63%
Sur 2+ goals
26%
Sur 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Oruba (draw refunded)
53%
Sur (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Oruba at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Sur away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Oruba attack 0.77 + Sur defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sur attack 0.83 + Al Oruba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Oruba scores more
37%
level
30%
Sur scores more
33%

Al Oruba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Oruba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Oruba 0–0 Sur

Al Oruba and Sur drew 0-0 in Professional League on November 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.