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Al Okhdood vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018

Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
B. Hkimi 43'
M. Al-Shaekh 33'
H. Al Zbadeen 26'
A. Hawsawi 89' (pen)
H. Asseri 52'
11/13/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Okhdood46%
×Draw26%
Jeddah Club27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Okhdood
1.45
Jeddah Club
1.05

Al Okhdood creates 38% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 127 away

creates per match

Al Okhdood
1.53
Jeddah Club
1.19

allows per match

Al Okhdood
0.92
Jeddah Club
1.37

finishing

Al Okhdood+0.00on par
Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Okhdood ↓

Jeddah Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Okhdood or draw
73%
Al Okhdood or Jeddah Club
74%
Draw or Jeddah Club
54%

Winning margin

Al Okhdood wins by 2+
23%
Jeddah Club wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Okhdood 1+ goals
77%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
42%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
18%
Jeddah Club 1+ goals
65%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
28%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
63%
Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Okhdood at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Okhdood attack 1.53 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al Okhdood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Okhdood scores more
46%
level
26%
Jeddah Club scores more
27%

Al Okhdood at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Okhdood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
H. Al Zbadeen
33'
M. Al-Shaekh
43'
B. Hkimi
52'
H. Asseri
64'
O. S. Al-Zayni
89'
A. HawsawiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Okhdood 3–2 Jeddah Club

Al Okhdood beat Jeddah Club 3-2 in Division 1 on November 13, 2022.

Goals: H. Al Zbadeen (26'), M. Al-Shaekh (33'), B. Hkimi (43'), H. Asseri (52'), A. Hawsawi (89' pen).

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.