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Al Okhdood vs Al Qaisoma — Division 1 2018

Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
Othman Batou 69', 57' (pen)
A. Boudrama 45+2' (OG)
H. Djaouchi 20'
5/16/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 32Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Okhdood50%
×Draw26%
Al Qaisoma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Okhdood
1.54
Al Qaisoma
1.00

Al Okhdood creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Okhdood
1.53
Al Qaisoma
1.08

allows per match

Al Okhdood
0.92
Al Qaisoma
1.54

finishing

Al Okhdood+0.00on par
Al Qaisoma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Okhdood ↓

Al Qaisoma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Okhdood or draw
75%
Al Okhdood or Al Qaisoma
74%
Draw or Al Qaisoma
50%

Winning margin

Al Okhdood wins by 2+
26%
Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Okhdood 1+ goals
79%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
45%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
20%
Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
63%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
26%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
67%
Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Okhdood at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Al Qaisoma away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Okhdood attack 1.53 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Qaisoma attack 1.08 + Al Okhdood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Okhdood scores more
50%
level
26%
Al Qaisoma scores more
25%

Al Okhdood at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Okhdood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
H. Djaouchi
45+2'
A. BoudramaOwn goal
57'
Othman BatouPenalty
69'
Othman Batou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Okhdood 3–1 Al Qaisoma

Al Okhdood beat Al Qaisoma 3-1 in Division 1 on May 16, 2023.

Goals: H. Djaouchi (20'), A. Boudrama (45+2' o.g.), Othman Batou (57' pen, 69').

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.