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Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Division 1 2018

Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
8/30/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Okhdood33%
×Draw30%
Al-Ahli Jeddah37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Okhdood
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Okhdood
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

allows per match

Al Okhdood
0.92
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.53

finishing

Al Okhdood+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Okhdood ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Okhdood or draw
63%
Al Okhdood or Al-Ahli Jeddah
70%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
67%

Winning margin

Al Okhdood wins by 2+
13%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Okhdood 1+ goals
64%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
28%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
9%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
67%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
30%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Okhdood at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Okhdood attack 1.53 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Al Okhdood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Okhdood scores more
33%
level
30%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
37%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al Okhdood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 in Division 1 on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.