Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats

Al-Ahli Jeddah

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Al Okhdood

F. Al Buraikan 72'

F. Kessie 43', 36'

V. Atangana 26'

5/3/2026

Pro League · Round 31King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah62%

×Draw22%

Al Okhdood16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahli JeddahExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.90

Al Okhdood

0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 124% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

2.14

creates per match

0.76

0.95

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2.14

Al Okhdood

0.76

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.95

Al Okhdood

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw

84%

Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Okhdood

78%

Draw or Al Okhdood

38%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

37%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

56%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

29%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

57%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

21%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

79%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.14 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.90

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

62%

level

22%

Al Okhdood scores more

16%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

F. Kessie

Al-Ahli Jeddah · M

8.5

Match Events

26'

V. Atangana↳ S. Abu Al Shamat

29'

36'

43'

45'

46'

46'

M. Al Jahif← T. Nguen

46'

M. Abu Abd← C. Bassogog

56'

M. Al Qaydhi← M. Fagihy

57'

G. Hawsawi← A. Al Hatila

60'

Ricardo Mathias← Z. Al Hawsawi

60'

E. Al Muwallad← V. Atangana

60'

M. Abdulrahman← F. Kessie

64'

Mateo Borrell

65'

K. Al Lazam← K. Narey

72'

F. Al Buraikan↳ Ricardo Mathias

79'

S. Abdullah← S. Abu Al Shamat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-AhliAl

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots3

2.35Expected Goals (xG)0.28

6Corners6

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots3

8On Target2

6Off Target0

4Blocked1

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

436Total Passes207

369Accurate Passes142

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-0.64Goals Prevented-0.64

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0