Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Nejmeh vs Sporting Beirut — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Beirut
Sporting Beirut
3/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 3Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Nejmeh66%
×Draw21%
Sporting Beirut13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.92
Sporting Beirut
0.71

Al Nejmeh creates 170% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 10 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Sporting Beirut
0.60

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Sporting Beirut
2.00

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Sporting Beirut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
87%
Al Nejmeh or Sporting Beirut
79%
Draw or Sporting Beirut
34%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
40%
Sporting Beirut wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
85%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
57%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
30%
Sporting Beirut 1+ goals
51%
Sporting Beirut 2+ goals
16%
Sporting Beirut 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
83%
Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Sporting Beirut away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Sporting Beirut defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sporting Beirut attack 0.60 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
66%
level
21%
Sporting Beirut scores more
13%

Al Nejmeh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nejmeh vs Sporting Beirut

Al Nejmeh and Sporting Beirut drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.