Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Nejmeh vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
10/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al Nejmeh49%
×Draw26%
Shabab Al Sahel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.53
Shabab Al Sahel
1.01

Al Nejmeh creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
75%
Al Nejmeh or Shabab Al Sahel
74%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
51%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
25%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
78%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
45%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
20%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
64%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
27%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
66%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
49%
level
26%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
25%

Al Nejmeh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Nejmeh 3–1 Shabab Al Sahel

Al Nejmeh beat Shabab Al Sahel 3-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounieh (Jounie).