Al Nejmeh 1–0 Racing: Result & Stats

Al Nejmeh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing

2/23/2024

Premier League · Championship Round - 3Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Nejmeh65%

×Draw21%

Racing14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NejmehExpected goals in this matchRacing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.81

Al Nejmeh

2.00

Racing

0.81

Al Nejmeh creates 147% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Al Nejmeh

1.83

Racing

0.79

allows per match

Al Nejmeh

0.83

Racing

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Racing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw

86%

Al Nejmeh or Racing

79%

Draw or Racing

35%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+

40%

Racing wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals

86%

Al Nejmeh 2+ goals

59%

Al Nejmeh 3+ goals

32%

Racing 1+ goals

56%

Racing 2+ goals

19%

Racing 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)

82%

Racing (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Racing away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Racing defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Racing attack 0.79 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more

65%

level

21%

Racing scores more

14%

Al Nejmeh at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff