Al Nejmeh 0–2 Al Wihdat: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Nejmeh

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Wihdat

4/30/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Nejmeh27%

×Draw25%

Al Wihdat48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NejmehExpected goals in this matchAl Wihdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.57

Al Nejmeh

1.10

Al Wihdat

1.57

Al Wihdat creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.57

creates per match

1.43

1.71

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Al Nejmeh

0.57

Al Wihdat

1.43

allows per match

Al Nejmeh

1.71

Al Wihdat

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Wihdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw

52%

Al Nejmeh or Al Wihdat

75%

Draw or Al Wihdat

73%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+

10%

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals

67%

Al Nejmeh 2+ goals

30%

Al Nejmeh 3+ goals

10%

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

79%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

46%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)

36%

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 0.57 + Al Wihdat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Wihdat attack 1.43 + Al Nejmeh defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more

27%

level

25%

Al Wihdat scores more

48%

Al Wihdat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff