Al Nejmeh 1–0 Al Ahli Nabatiya: Result & Stats

Al Nejmeh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Nabatiya

12/16/2023

Premier League · Round 8Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Nejmeh58%

×Draw25%

Al Ahli Nabatiya16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NejmehExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Nabatiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.69

Al Nejmeh

1.57

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.69

Al Nejmeh creates 128% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

0.54

0.83

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Al Nejmeh

1.83

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.54

allows per match

Al Nejmeh

0.83

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw

84%

Al Nejmeh or Al Ahli Nabatiya

75%

Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya

42%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+

31%

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals

79%

Al Nejmeh 2+ goals

46%

Al Nejmeh 3+ goals

21%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals

50%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals

15%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)

78%

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more

58%

level

25%

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more

16%

Al Nejmeh at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff