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Al Nawaeir vs Jabala — Premier League 2019

Al Nawaeir
Al Nawaeir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jabala
Jabala
5/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Nawaeir36%
×Draw28%
Jabala36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nawaeir
1.20
Jabala
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Nawaeir
0.92
Jabala
1.04

allows per match

Al Nawaeir
1.35
Jabala
1.47

finishing

Al Nawaeir+0.00on par
Jabala+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nawaeir ↓

Jabala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Nawaeir or draw
64%
Al Nawaeir or Jabala
72%
Draw or Jabala
64%

Winning margin

Al Nawaeir wins by 2+
15%
Jabala wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Nawaeir 1+ goals
70%
Al Nawaeir 2+ goals
34%
Al Nawaeir 3+ goals
12%
Jabala 1+ goals
70%
Jabala 2+ goals
34%
Jabala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Nawaeir (draw refunded)
50%
Jabala (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nawaeir at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Jabala away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nawaeir attack 0.92 + Jabala defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jabala attack 1.04 + Al Nawaeir defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Nawaeir scores more
36%
level
28%
Jabala scores more
36%

Al Nawaeir at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Nawaeir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nawaeir vs Jabala

Al Nawaeir and Jabala drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Hama.