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Al Nawaeir vs Hottin — Premier League 2019

Al Nawaeir
Al Nawaeir
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hottin
Hottin
5/29/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Nawaeir29%
×Draw29%
Hottin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nawaeir
0.94
Hottin
1.21

Hottin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al Nawaeir
0.92
Hottin
1.06

allows per match

Al Nawaeir
1.35
Hottin
0.95

finishing

Al Nawaeir+0.00on par
Hottin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nawaeir ↓

Hottin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Nawaeir or draw
58%
Al Nawaeir or Hottin
71%
Draw or Hottin
71%

Winning margin

Al Nawaeir wins by 2+
10%
Hottin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Nawaeir 1+ goals
61%
Al Nawaeir 2+ goals
24%
Al Nawaeir 3+ goals
7%
Hottin 1+ goals
70%
Hottin 2+ goals
34%
Hottin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Nawaeir (draw refunded)
40%
Hottin (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nawaeir at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Hottin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nawaeir attack 0.92 + Hottin defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Hottin attack 1.06 + Al Nawaeir defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Nawaeir scores more
29%
level
29%
Hottin scores more
42%

Hottin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Nawaeir 0–2 Hottin

Hottin beat Al Nawaeir 2-0 in Premier League on May 29, 2020.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Hama.