Al Nawaeir 2–3 Foutoua: Result & Stats

Al Nawaeir

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Foutoua

4/5/2022

Premier League · Round 18Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Nawaeir32%

×Draw29%

Foutoua39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NawaeirExpected goals in this matchFoutoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Al Nawaeir

1.04

Foutoua

1.17

Foutoua creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 81 away

0.92

creates per match

0.98

1.35

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Nawaeir

0.92

Foutoua

0.98

allows per match

Al Nawaeir

1.35

Foutoua

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nawaeir+0.00on par

Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nawaeir ↓

Foutoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Nawaeir or draw

61%

Al Nawaeir or Foutoua

71%

Draw or Foutoua

68%

Winning margin

Al Nawaeir wins by 2+

12%

Foutoua wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al Nawaeir 1+ goals

65%

Al Nawaeir 2+ goals

28%

Al Nawaeir 3+ goals

9%

Foutoua 1+ goals

69%

Foutoua 2+ goals

33%

Foutoua 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Nawaeir (draw refunded)

45%

Foutoua (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nawaeir at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nawaeir attack 0.92 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Al Nawaeir defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Nawaeir scores more

32%

level

29%

Foutoua scores more

39%

Foutoua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Foutoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff