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Al-Nassr vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
3/11/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Nassr56%
×Draw21%
ZOB Ahan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.16
ZOB Ahan
1.35

Al-Nassr creates 60% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.21
ZOB Ahan
1.67

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.04
ZOB Ahan
2.11

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
76%
Al-Nassr or ZOB Ahan
79%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
44%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
34%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
88%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
63%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
36%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
74%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
39%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
70%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.21 + ZOB Ahan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.16

ZOB Ahan attack 1.67 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
56%
level
21%
ZOB Ahan scores more
24%

Al-Nassr at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Nassr 2–3 ZOB Ahan

ZOB Ahan beat Al-Nassr 3-2 in AFC Champions League on March 11, 2019.

The match was played at Al Maktoum Stadium in Dubai.