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Al-Nassr vs Tractor Sazi — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassradvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
9/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Nassr47%
×Draw25%
Tractor Sazi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.56
Tractor Sazi
1.16

Al-Nassr creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.21
Tractor Sazi
1.27

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.04
Tractor Sazi
0.91

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
72%
Al-Nassr or Tractor Sazi
75%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
53%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
24%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
79%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
46%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
21%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
69%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
32%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
62%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.21 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tractor Sazi attack 1.27 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
47%
level
25%
Tractor Sazi scores more
28%

Al-Nassr at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Nassr 1–0 Tractor Sazi

Al-Nassr beat Tractor Sazi 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.