Al-Nassr 4–0 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Al-Nassr

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

2/19/2019

AFC Champions League · Play-offsPrince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Nassr69%

×Draw17%

Olmaliq14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NassrExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.02

Al-Nassr

2.50

Olmaliq

1.02

Al-Nassr creates 145% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

2.21

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Al-Nassr

2.21

Olmaliq

1.00

allows per match

Al-Nassr

1.04

Olmaliq

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw

86%

Al-Nassr or Olmaliq

83%

Draw or Olmaliq

31%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

47%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

92%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

71%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

45%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

64%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

27%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

84%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.21 + Olmaliq defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.50

Olmaliq attack 1.00 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Al-Nassr scores more

69%

level

17%

Olmaliq scores more

14%

Al-Nassr at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff