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Al-Nassr vs Esteghlal FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassradvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
3/10/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Al-Awwal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Nassr54%
×Draw22%
Esteghlal FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.90
Esteghlal FC
1.20

Al-Nassr creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.26
Esteghlal FC
1.35

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.04
Esteghlal FC
1.55

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
76%
Al-Nassr or Esteghlal FC
78%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
46%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
31%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
85%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
56%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
29%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
70%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
34%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
69%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.26 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
54%
level
22%
Esteghlal FC scores more
24%

Al-Nassr at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Esteghlal FC

Al-Nassr beat Esteghlal FC 3-0 in AFC Champions League on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh.