Al-Nassr 2–2 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Al-Nassr

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Sadd

Abdulrahman Al Obaid 53'

A. Hamdallah 7'

Hassan Al Heidos 48'

Abdulelah Al Amri 9' (OG)

2/11/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al-Nassr56%

×Draw22%

Al Sadd22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NassrExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.15

Al-Nassr

1.94

Al Sadd

1.15

Al-Nassr creates 69% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

2.26

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Al-Nassr

2.26

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Al-Nassr

1.04

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw

78%

Al-Nassr or Al Sadd

78%

Draw or Al Sadd

44%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

32%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

86%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

58%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

30%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

68%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

32%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

71%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.26 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Nassr scores more

56%

level

22%

Al Sadd scores more

22%

Al-Nassr at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Pedro Miguel Correia

Al Sadd · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

A. Hamdallah↳ Yehya Al Shehri

9'

Abdulelah Al AmriOwn goal

41'

Akram Afif

48'

Hassan Al Heidos↳ Pedro Miguel Correia

53'

65'

69'

72'

78'

Hashim Ali← Nam Tae-Hee

80'

Khalid Al Ghannam← Yehya Al Shehri

82'

Hamid Ismaeil← Yasser Aboubaker Essa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-NassrAl

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots5

8Corners5

17Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots5

5On Target4

4Off Target1

4Blocked0

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

385Total Passes366

287Accurate Passes267

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides7