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Al-Nassr vs Al Sadd — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassradvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Sadd
Al Sadd
8/26/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsKing Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Nassr55%
×Draw22%
Al Sadd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.92
Al Sadd
1.15

Al-Nassr creates 67% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.21
Al Sadd
1.26

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.04
Al Sadd
1.62

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Sadd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
77%
Al-Nassr or Al Sadd
78%
Draw or Al Sadd
45%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
32%
Al Sadd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
85%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
57%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
30%
Al Sadd 1+ goals
68%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
32%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
71%
Al Sadd (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.21 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
55%
level
22%
Al Sadd scores more
23%

Al-Nassr at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al Sadd

Al-Nassr beat Al Sadd 2-1 in AFC Champions League on August 26, 2019.

The match was played at King Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.