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Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood — Pro League 2021

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
Joao Felix 90'
C. Ronaldo 45', 31'
12/27/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 11King Saud University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Nassr64%
×Draw21%
Al Okhdood16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.03
Al Okhdood
0.89

Al-Nassr creates 128% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.41
Al Okhdood
0.76

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.01
Al Okhdood
1.65

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
84%
Al-Nassr or Al Okhdood
79%
Draw or Al Okhdood
36%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
39%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
87%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
60%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
33%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
59%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
22%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
80%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.01 · 81 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.41 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Nassr defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
64%
level
21%
Al Okhdood scores more
16%

Al-Nassr at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. BrozovicAl-NassrAl-Nassr · M
8.6

Match Events

31'
C. Ronaldo↳ A. Al Amri
40'
B. Kramer← K. Narey
45'
C. Ronaldo↳ M. Brozovic
61'
Saeed Al-Rabiei
67'
Cristiano RonaldoGoal cancelled
69'
S. Al Nasser← S. Al Ghannam
69'
A. Al Khaibari← Wesley
78'
A. Al Hatila← M. Borrell
78'
H. Al Zabdani← J. Pedroza
83'
S. Al Harthi← B. Ince
83'
S. Al Abbas← A. Al Salem
88'
S. Al Najdi← K. Coman
88'
A. Al Hassan← M. Brozovic
90+2'
Saleh Al-Harthi
90'
Joao Felix↳ N. Boushal

Possession

65%Al-Nassr

Shots

15Al-Nassr

Pass accuracy

55%Al-Nassr

Statistics

Al-NassrAl
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots4
2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.17
8Corners5
13Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots4
5On Target2
9Off Target0
1Blocked2
10Inside Box2
5Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
490Total Passes277
434Accurate Passes203
89%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides7

Pro League: Al-Nassr 3–0 Al Okhdood

Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 3-0 in Pro League on December 27, 2025.

Goals: C. Ronaldo (31', 45'), Joao Felix (90').

Al-Nassr controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.