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Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
5/27/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 34Al Awal Park at King Saud University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Al-Nassr47%
×Draw23%
Al-Ittihad FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.81
Al-Ittihad FC
1.41

Al-Nassr creates 28% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 124 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Al-Ittihad FC
1.75

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Al-Ittihad FC
1.26

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
70%
Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC
77%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
53%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
26%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
84%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
54%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
27%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
41%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
61%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.26 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.81

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.75 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
47%
level
23%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
30%

Al-Nassr at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC

Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 4-2 in Pro League on May 27, 2024.

The match was played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Riyadh.