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Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
11/1/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 9Al Awal Park at King Saud University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al-Nassr39%
×Draw23%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.68
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.29

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.98

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
61%
Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
77%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
61%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
20%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
81%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
50%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
81%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
50%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
39%
level
23%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
39%

Al-Nassr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in Pro League on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Riyadh.