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Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
2/29/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 22Al Awal Park at King Saud University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Al-Nassr63%
×Draw20%
Al-Hazm17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.12
Al-Hazm
1.00

Al-Nassr creates 112% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 79 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Al-Hazm
0.94

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Al-Hazm
1.86

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
83%
Al-Nassr or Al-Hazm
80%
Draw or Al-Hazm
37%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
39%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
88%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
62%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
35%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
63%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
26%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
79%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.86 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Al-Hazm attack 0.94 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
63%
level
20%
Al-Hazm scores more
17%

Al-Nassr at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm

Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm drew 4-4 in Pro League on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Riyadh.