Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al-Nassr

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Faisaly FC

1/15/2022

Pro League · Round 17Mrsool Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al-Nassr57%

×Draw22%

Al-Faisaly FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NassrExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.10

Al-Nassr

1.94

Al-Faisaly FC

1.10

Al-Nassr creates 76% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 60 away

2.35

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al-Nassr

2.35

Al-Faisaly FC

1.12

allows per match

Al-Nassr

1.07

Al-Faisaly FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw

79%

Al-Nassr or Al-Faisaly FC

78%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

43%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

33%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

86%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

58%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

30%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

67%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

30%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

73%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.35 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al-Nassr defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Nassr scores more

57%

level

22%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

21%

Al-Nassr at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff