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Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
4/29/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 30King Saud University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Nassr50%
×Draw22%
Al-Ahli Jeddah28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.35

Al-Nassr creates 40% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.65

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
72%
Al-Nassr or Al-Ahli Jeddah
78%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
50%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
28%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
85%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
56%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
74%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
39%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
65%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.89

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
50%
level
22%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
28%

Al-Nassr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 in Pro League on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.