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Al-Nassr vs Al Ahli Doha — AFC Cup 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassradvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Al Ahli Doha
Al Ahli Doha
4/22/2026AFC CupAFC Cup · Semi-finalsZabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Nassr74%
×Draw16%
Al Ahli Doha10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.56
Al Ahli Doha
0.85

Al-Nassr creates 201% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
3.33
Al Ahli Doha
1.20

allows per match

Al-Nassr
0.50
Al Ahli Doha
1.80

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Ahli Doha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
90%
Al-Nassr or Al Ahli Doha
84%
Draw or Al Ahli Doha
26%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
52%
Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
92%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
72%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
46%
Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals
57%
Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals
21%
Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
88%
Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Al Ahli Doha away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 3.33 + Al Ahli Doha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.56

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.20 + Al-Nassr defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
74%
level
16%
Al Ahli Doha scores more
10%

Al-Nassr at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nassr vs Al Ahli Doha

Al-Nassr beat Al Ahli Doha 5-1 in AFC Cup on April 22, 2026.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai.