Al-Nasr 0–0 Wefaq Ajdabiya: Result & Stats

Al-Nasr

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wefaq Ajdabiya

2/5/2025

Premier League · East - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Nasr60%

×Draw26%

Wefaq Ajdabiya14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NasrExpected goals in this matchWefaq Ajdabiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.56

Al-Nasr

1.49

Wefaq Ajdabiya

0.56

Al-Nasr creates 166% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

1.65

creates per match

0.47

0.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Al-Nasr

1.65

Wefaq Ajdabiya

0.47

allows per match

Al-Nasr

0.65

Wefaq Ajdabiya

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Wefaq Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Wefaq Ajdabiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw

86%

Al-Nasr or Wefaq Ajdabiya

74%

Draw or Wefaq Ajdabiya

40%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+

32%

Wefaq Ajdabiya wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals

77%

Al-Nasr 2+ goals

44%

Al-Nasr 3+ goals

19%

Wefaq Ajdabiya 1+ goals

43%

Wefaq Ajdabiya 2+ goals

11%

Wefaq Ajdabiya 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)

81%

Wefaq Ajdabiya (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 68 matches

Wefaq Ajdabiya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.65 + Wefaq Ajdabiya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Wefaq Ajdabiya attack 0.47 + Al-Nasr defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Nasr scores more

60%

level

26%

Wefaq Ajdabiya scores more

14%

Al-Nasr at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff