Al-Nasr 0–1 Olympic Azzaweya: Result & Stats

Al-Nasr

FT

0 – 1

Olympic Azzaweya

7/20/2022

Premier League · Championship Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Al-Nasr50%

×Draw27%

Olympic Azzaweya22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NasrExpected goals in this matchOlympic Azzaweya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.84

Al-Nasr

1.41

Olympic Azzaweya

0.84

Al-Nasr creates 68% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 65 away

1.65

creates per match

1.03

0.65

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al-Nasr

1.65

Olympic Azzaweya

1.03

allows per match

Al-Nasr

0.65

Olympic Azzaweya

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Olympic Azzaweya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw

78%

Al-Nasr or Olympic Azzaweya

73%

Draw or Olympic Azzaweya

50%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+

25%

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals

76%

Al-Nasr 2+ goals

41%

Al-Nasr 3+ goals

17%

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals

57%

Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals

21%

Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)

69%

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 68 matches

Olympic Azzaweya away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.65 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.03 + Al-Nasr defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Nasr scores more

50%

level

27%

Olympic Azzaweya scores more

22%

Al-Nasr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff