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Al-Nasr vs Ngom Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Al-Nasr
Al-Nasr
FT
2 – 0
Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
2/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Nasr65%
×Draw23%
Ngom Ajdabiya12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nasr
1.73
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.60

Al-Nasr creates 188% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Nasr
1.65
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55

allows per match

Al-Nasr
0.65
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.82

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par
Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw
88%
Al-Nasr or Ngom Ajdabiya
77%
Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya
35%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+
37%
Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals
82%
Al-Nasr 2+ goals
52%
Al-Nasr 3+ goals
25%
Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
45%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
12%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)
84%
Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 68 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.65 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al-Nasr defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al-Nasr scores more
65%
level
23%
Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
12%

Al-Nasr at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Nasr 2–0 Ngom Ajdabiya

Al-Nasr beat Ngom Ajdabiya 2-0 in Premier League on February 6, 2021.