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Al-Nasr vs Al Merreikh — CAF Champions League 2019

Al-Nasr
Al-Nasr
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
8/17/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundMartyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Nasr45%
×Draw26%
Al Merreikh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nasr
1.43
Al Merreikh
1.08

Al-Nasr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al-Nasr
1.00
Al Merreikh
0.67

allows per match

Al-Nasr
1.50
Al Merreikh
1.86

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw
71%
Al-Nasr or Al Merreikh
74%
Draw or Al Merreikh
55%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+
22%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals
76%
Al-Nasr 2+ goals
42%
Al-Nasr 3+ goals
17%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
66%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
29%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)
61%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.00 + Al Merreikh defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Merreikh attack 0.67 + Al-Nasr defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Nasr scores more
45%
level
26%
Al Merreikh scores more
29%

Al-Nasr at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nasr vs Al Merreikh

Al-Nasr and Al Merreikh drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Martyrs of February Stadium in Benghazi.