Al Nasar 2–0 Al Jahra: Result & Stats

Al Nasar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Jahra

3/2/2024

Premier League · Round 17Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Nasar49%

×Draw24%

Al Jahra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NasarExpected goals in this matchAl Jahra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.20

Al Nasar

1.69

Al Jahra

1.20

Al Nasar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 43 away

1.38

creates per match

0.93

1.47

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al Nasar

1.38

Al Jahra

0.93

allows per match

Al Nasar

1.47

Al Jahra

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nasar+0.00on par

Al Jahra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasar ↓

Al Jahra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al Nasar or draw

73%

Al Nasar or Al Jahra

76%

Draw or Al Jahra

51%

Winning margin

Al Nasar wins by 2+

26%

Al Jahra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Nasar 1+ goals

82%

Al Nasar 2+ goals

50%

Al Nasar 3+ goals

24%

Al Jahra 1+ goals

70%

Al Jahra 2+ goals

34%

Al Jahra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Nasar (draw refunded)

64%

Al Jahra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 78 matches

Al Jahra away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasar attack 1.38 + Al Jahra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Jahra attack 0.93 + Al Nasar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Nasar scores more

49%

level

24%

Al Jahra scores more

27%

Al Nasar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Nasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff