Al Najoom 1–1 Hetten FC: Result & Stats

Al Najoom

FT

1 – 1

Hetten FC

9/17/2019

Division 1 · Round 5Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Najoom48%

×Draw25%

Hetten FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajoomExpected goals in this matchHetten FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.12

Al Najoom

1.58

Hetten FC

1.12

Al Najoom creates 41% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

0.85

creates per match

0.89

1.35

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Al Najoom

0.85

Hetten FC

0.89

allows per match

Al Najoom

1.35

Hetten FC

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najoom+0.00on par

Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najoom ↓

Hetten FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Najoom or draw

73%

Al Najoom or Hetten FC

75%

Draw or Hetten FC

52%

Winning margin

Al Najoom wins by 2+

25%

Hetten FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Najoom 1+ goals

79%

Al Najoom 2+ goals

47%

Al Najoom 3+ goals

21%

Hetten FC 1+ goals

67%

Hetten FC 2+ goals

31%

Hetten FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Najoom (draw refunded)

64%

Hetten FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najoom at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najoom attack 0.85 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al Najoom defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Najoom scores more

48%

level

25%

Hetten FC scores more

27%

Al Najoom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Najoom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff