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Al Najoom vs Al Mojzel — Division 1 2018

Al Najoom
Al Najoom
FT
2 – 1
Al Mojzel
Al Mojzel
11/27/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 14Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Najoom42%
×Draw27%
Al Mojzel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najoom
1.33
Al Mojzel
1.08

Al Najoom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Najoom
0.85
Al Mojzel
0.81

allows per match

Al Najoom
1.35
Al Mojzel
1.81

finishing

Al Najoom+0.00on par
Al Mojzel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najoom ↓

Al Mojzel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Najoom or draw
70%
Al Najoom or Al Mojzel
73%
Draw or Al Mojzel
58%

Winning margin

Al Najoom wins by 2+
19%
Al Mojzel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Najoom 1+ goals
74%
Al Najoom 2+ goals
38%
Al Najoom 3+ goals
15%
Al Mojzel 1+ goals
66%
Al Mojzel 2+ goals
29%
Al Mojzel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Najoom (draw refunded)
58%
Al Mojzel (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najoom at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

Al Mojzel away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najoom attack 0.85 + Al Mojzel defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Mojzel attack 0.81 + Al Najoom defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Najoom scores more
42%
level
27%
Al Mojzel scores more
30%

Al Najoom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Najoom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Najoom vs Al Mojzel

Al Najoom beat Al Mojzel 2-1 in Division 1 on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium in Al-Hasa.