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Al Najma vs Al-Ain — Division 1 2018

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ain
Al-Ain
1/8/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Najma46%
×Draw27%
Al-Ain27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.38
Al-Ain
0.98

Al Najma creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.44
Al-Ain
0.92

allows per match

Al Najma
1.03
Al-Ain
1.31

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al-Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
73%
Al Najma or Al-Ain
73%
Draw or Al-Ain
54%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
22%
Al-Ain wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
75%
Al Najma 2+ goals
40%
Al Najma 3+ goals
16%
Al-Ain 1+ goals
62%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
26%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Ain (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.44 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Al Najma defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Najma scores more
46%
level
27%
Al-Ain scores more
27%

Al Najma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Najma 0 – 1 Al-Ain

Al-Ain beat Al Najma 1-0 in Division 1 on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.