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Al Najma vs Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Al Ahli
Al Ahli
R. Marhoon 83'
D. Jokovic 45'
A. Al Hashash 57' (pen), 37', 21'
H. Harwanah 3'
10/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Khalifa Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Al Najma39%
×Draw25%
Al Ahli36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.46
Al Ahli
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 69 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.40
Al Ahli
1.17

allows per match

Al Najma
1.60
Al Ahli
1.51

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
64%
Al Najma or Al Ahli
75%
Draw or Al Ahli
61%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
19%
Al Ahli wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
77%
Al Najma 2+ goals
43%
Al Najma 3+ goals
18%
Al Ahli 1+ goals
75%
Al Ahli 2+ goals
40%
Al Ahli 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
52%
Al Ahli (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Al Ahli away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.40 + Al Ahli defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Ahli attack 1.17 + Al Najma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Najma scores more
39%
level
25%
Al Ahli scores more
36%

Al Najma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
H. Harwanah
21'
A. Al Hashash
37'
A. Al Hashash
45'
D. Jokovic
57'
A. Al HashashPenalty
83'
R. Marhoon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Najma 2–4 Al Ahli

Al Ahli beat Al Najma 4-2 in Premier League on October 3, 2025.

Goals: H. Harwanah (3'), A. Al Hashash (21', 37', 57' pen), D. Jokovic (45'), R. Marhoon (83').

The match was played at Khalifa Sports City Stadium in al-Manāma (Manama).