Al Najaf 2–0 Samarra: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al Najaf

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Samarra

12/12/2021

Iraqi League · Round 12Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Najaf52%

×Draw29%

Samarra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajafExpected goals in this matchSamarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.68

Al Najaf

1.31

Samarra

0.68

Al Najaf creates 93% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

0.31

1.05

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Al Najaf

1.17

Samarra

0.31

allows per match

Al Najaf

1.05

Samarra

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Samarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw

81%

Al Najaf or Samarra

71%

Draw or Samarra

48%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+

25%

Samarra wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals

73%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

38%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

14%

Samarra 1+ goals

49%

Samarra 2+ goals

15%

Samarra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

73%

Samarra (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Samarra attack 0.31 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Najaf scores more

52%

level

29%

Samarra scores more

19%

Al Najaf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff