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Al Najaf vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2023

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
Mohammad Dawood 45' (pen)
3/5/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Al Najaf35%
×Draw28%
Newroz37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.16
Newroz
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.12
Newroz
1.27

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.12
Newroz
1.20

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
63%
Al Najaf or Newroz
72%
Draw or Newroz
65%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
14%
Newroz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
69%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
32%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
11%
Newroz 1+ goals
70%
Newroz 2+ goals
34%
Newroz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
49%
Newroz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.12 + Newroz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Newroz attack 1.27 + Al Najaf defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Najaf scores more
35%
level
28%
Newroz scores more
37%

Newroz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Mohammad DawoodPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Najaf vs Newroz

Al Najaf beat Newroz 1-0 in Iraqi League on March 5, 2024.

Goals: Mohammad Dawood (45' pen).

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.